Gold is supposed to go up when the world gets scarier. So why is it falling?
That’s the question rattling everyday investors right now — and it’s a fair one. Despite an oil shock, a widening Middle East conflict, inflation still sitting above the Fed’s 2% target, and recession warnings from major financial institutions, gold has pulled back from recent highs. For anyone who turned to precious metals precisely because things looked unstable, the move feels like a betrayal. Lear Capital, the Los Angeles-based precious metals firm that’s been in the business for nearly three decades, just released an educational brief trying to make sense of it.
Here’s the thing: gold’s short-term behavior during a crisis often looks nothing like its long-term trajectory.
The brief — published through Lear Capital’s Money & Metals platform and drawing on research from major banks and independent analysts — makes a point that gets lost in the noise. When a geopolitical shock first hits, markets tend to reprice inflation expectations and bond yields upward. That strengthens the dollar. And a stronger dollar creates headwinds for gold, at least initially. That’s what’s been playing out over the past several weeks.
The second phase tends to look different. As economic damage spreads and central banks inch closer to easing, the conditions that have historically driven gold prices higher — falling yields, dollar softness, recession anxiety — tend to resurface. Several major institutional voices have maintained constructive long-term outlooks through the current volatility, framing the pullback not as a trend reversal but as a potential entry point.
The broader numbers support that framing. Gold has climbed more than 45% over the past twelve months, reaching around $4,500 per ounce as of late March 2026. The Federal Reserve held rates steady at 3.5% to 3.75% at its March 18 meeting, with Chair Jerome Powell acknowledging that elevated inflation and Middle East uncertainty are complicating the path forward. Add to that U.S. national debt now exceeding $39 trillion and the dollar’s long-term purchasing power decline — neither of those problems gets solved by a short-term price dip in gold.
“When markets move in ways that feel confusing, our job is to provide context,” said John Ohanesian, President and CEO of Lear Capital. “Our brief exists to make institutional-level analysis accessible to the investors we serve.”
The company has served more than 100,000 clients and processed over $3 billion in transactions since 1997. Education, they say, is as central to what they do as physical metals purchases and self-directed IRA services.
The full brief is available at LearCapital.com. Investors can also request a free precious metals kit or reach a representative at 800-576-9355.
Lear Capital is a for-profit retailer and does not provide financial or investment advice. Precious metals investing involves risk, including possible loss of principal. Past performance is not indicative of future results.
