Ryan Keyrouse, CEO of Rotate, presented key insights and forecasts on the global e-commerce market to over 450 attendees at the EU Cross-Border E-Commerce Forum in Liège, Belgium. Keyrouse’s analysis, which utilized Rotate’s Live Capacity data and new air cargo demand data product, offered a comprehensive view of the e-commerce sector.
Keyrouse highlighted the significant expansion of e-commerce from China in the past two years, noting that growth is now spreading beyond the southern province of Guangdong (+15%) to other regions (+37%). Capacity data reinforced this trend, showing that China’s secondary airports are surpassing expectations as airlines increasingly deploy dedicated e-commerce freighters there, reducing the proportion of e-commerce transported via mail.
The diversification of e-commerce origins is also evident. While China to the US and Europe saw the highest tonnage growth, China to Malaysia and Mexico combined contributed as many e-commerce tonnes as Europe, with year-on-year growth rates of 46% and 73%, respectively.
Ahead of the forum, Rotate surveyed the attendees on e-commerce trends, uncovering discrepancies between industry perceptions and actual data. For instance, while half of the delegates believed e-commerce growth was driving a broader increase in general cargo, trade data shows the general cargo market has been relatively stagnant. The survey also identified the main threats to e-commerce growth as security issues from misdeclarations and politically motivated policies, rather than changes to De Minimis thresholds.
Operational challenges were also highlighted, with respondents citing misdeclarations, digital constraints from numerous small packages, inadequate airport facilities and staff, and imbalanced flows as key issues. These imbalances are leading to increasing gaps in the profitability of one-way freighters.
Looking ahead to 2025, Keyrouse discussed various potential market scenarios. Delegates were divided between expecting continued aggressive growth in e-commerce and a shift to more moderate growth, with a small minority believing volumes may have peaked. This optimistic outlook could push the industry into new territory, setting records for consecutive months of growth, but also raise concerns about how available capacity will affect demand, given the high utilization of freighters and limited delivery and conversion capabilities.
Reflecting on the forum, Keyrouse noted, “We’ve seen parts of this data before, but it’s exciting to finally combine various sources to create a comprehensive view of demand. This is something we’ve aimed to build for a long time, and we have more developments coming soon.” Rotate continues to co-develop its demand data products with customers and invites interested parties to learn more about this innovative approach to air cargo demand data.
