The Future of Climate Finance Arrives: Oxygen Conservation Reveals the Carbon Curve 2025

Premium UK Carbon Credits Forecast to Reach £500/Tonne by 2050 — This Report Explains Why Carbon Is This Generation’s Greatest Investment Opportunity

Oxygen Conservation has launched the Oxygen Conservation Carbon Curve 2025, presenting a bold forecast: premium UK carbon credits are set to climb to £500/tonne by 2050. Far more than a typical market projection, the report offers a compelling call to action, laying out how the UK can lead the global charge in nature-based climate finance. It sends a clear message — “the window to act — and invest — is now.”

Grounded in real-world market data and shaped by the expertise of over thirty professionals across finance, law, and natural capital, the Carbon Curve introduces a 10-point strategy designed to fast-track the UK’s voluntary carbon market. It aims to position carbon as a high-integrity, high-return asset class built around the core mission of restoring nature.

Why this matters — and why you need to read it now:

1. This Is the Rise of ‘Premium Carbon’:

The carbon market has changed. Premium UK credits providing genuine carbon removal alongside biodiversity and community impact, are reshaping what carbon credits look like and are commanding huge price premiums. A new level of quality has arrived and pricing has responded accordingly.

2. The Price Forecast Is Real — and It’s Happening Now:

UK carbon credits have already hit £125/tonne in 2025. The £500/tonne projection isn’t a dream — it’s a reality we’re fast approaching. The best time to invest in natural capital was 12 months ago. The next best time is now.

3. The UK Is Uniquely Positioned to Lead:
With clear regulation, a robust integrity framework, and a sophisticated array of supporting industries underpinned by a globally renowned financial trading infrastructure, the UK is a market that is poised to become the centre of global climate finance.

This year alone has seen major voluntary market deals with Nattergal and Arup exchanging 10,000 premium quality nature-based carbon credits for £100 per tonne, and Oxygen Conservation’s own ‘Beyond Carbon’ partnership agreement with Burges Salmon providing 8,000 credits for £125 per tonne.

“The financial world has just received a clear signal of an impending economic shift – one that will redefine asset valuations globally” says Chris Winter, Director of Natural Capital at Oxygen Conservation. “Tackling climate change is the greatest challenge and greatest opportunity of our time. It is triggering the single largest repricing event in financial history and as 2030 net zero deadlines tighten, businesses are demanding credible, high-impact solutions. Premium carbon credits provide that, and the market knows it. The time to invest is now.”

What the report covers:

• A pricing curve showing premium credits rising to £500/tonne by 2050
• A breakdown of three tiers of carbon credit quality — and why premium pricing is emerging
• A call for the UK government to position the UK as the global leader in climate finance

“Markets move when belief meets evidence. The Oxygen Conservation Carbon Curve offers both. It marks the moment we can collectively stop asking whether nature can deliver returns and start recognising it as the world most important asset class” says Rich Stockdale, CEO of Oxygen Conservation.

What industry leaders are saying:

“A fascinating read – practical, timely, and a clear signal of where this market is heading.”
— Adam Hedley, Partner, Clifford Chance

“It is unmistakably Oxygen Conservation – candid, reflective, bold, and insightful,” said Freddie Ingleby of Caledonian Climate. “The paper is honest about its evolution and clear in its ambition – a valuable contribution to a fast-developing sector.”

Stockdale concludes: “This is the inflection point. The emergence of carbon as an asset class signals a fundamental shift in how markets value the future. Those who align capital with climate and nature won’t just participate — they’ll deliver real impact and significant returns as a result.”