Inflation continues to be a significant concern for both households and the economy. January’s CPI saw a rise from 2.5% to 3.0%, primarily driven by higher energy and utility costs. Airfare increases and the introduction of VAT on private school fees also contributed to the uptick.
For households already feeling the strain from rising living costs, this news is particularly unwelcome. However, resilient wage growth is helping to cushion the impact, providing some financial relief amid the inflationary pressures.
But what’s next for inflation?
At the last MPC meeting, Governor Bailey acknowledged a “bump in the road” but suggested it wouldn’t have lasting effects. However, this bump may be larger than expected. Although January’s inflation increase was partly driven by one-off factors, inflation could worsen as April brings hikes in employers’ costs.
To offset the impact, businesses may raise prices rather than cut jobs, pushing up service-sector inflation. This could complicate the Bank of England’s efforts to lower rates amid growing concerns about economic growth.
But what’s next for inflation?
At the last MPC meeting, Governor Bailey acknowledged a “bump in the road” but suggested it wouldn’t have lasting effects. However, this bump may be larger than expected. Although January’s inflation increase was partly driven by one-off factors, inflation could worsen as April brings hikes in employers’ costs.
To offset the impact, businesses may raise prices rather than cut jobs, pushing up service-sector inflation. This could complicate the Bank of England’s efforts to lower rates amid growing concerns about economic growth.
The Budget measures could have some deflationary impacts too, though. With Christmas festivities behind us and higher employment costs still to come through, there could be a weakening in the jobs market with higher vacancies and easing wage pressures. This is likely to lead to a drop off in demand.
Then there are the international factors at play. The gas price could fall in the wake of any peace deal in Ukraine, which could have a beneficial impact in terms of both suppressing inflation and boosting growth. Lower energy prices would provide the Bank of England more room to lower interest rates, and this could further boost activity.
However, the threat of looming US tariffs could cloud over this ray of hope, though the UK may be better insulated than Europe given its limited goods exports. It may therefore enjoy a peace ‘dividend’ while escaping the worst of any trade wars.
When will interest rates be cut further?
Given the wide array of moving parts there is considerable uncertainty around to what extent inflation remains a problem. This is reflected in the wide range of views among policymakers at the BoE regarding the pace and extent of cuts to come.
For now, the bias will be to gently cut rates further. The BoE’s mindset has now shifted to avoiding a potential policy mistake of waiting too long. We should therefore expect a further 0.25% cut by May as it sticks to its “gradual and careful” approach for the time being.
That said, the UK should be better insulated given its limited goods exports to the US so is uniquely positioned to benefit from Ukrainian peace without the negatives of additional tariffs.
The UK has been experiencing an unenviable mix of stubborn inflation, driven by services prices and energy costs, and economic stagnation – or ‘stagflation’.
This has been reflected in the weak performance of gilts in recent weeks as markets fret about the persistence of globally and locally generated inflation pressures, combined with the government’s spending and borrowing plans and a lacklustre growth picture.
The recent spike in gilt yields, the benchmark for government borrowing costs, will have set alarm bells ringing in the Treasury. Yet Chancellor Reeves may be offered a ray of hope. With inflation falling nearer to target and financial conditions posing downside risks for the UK economy, the Bank of England should now be able to deliver greater interest rate cuts than has been discounted. This stands to ease the pressure on consumers and businesses later this year and may help take the heat out of spiralling government debt costs.
What does today’s inflation data tell us?
Today’s inflation data shows that after receding for much of 2024, average price rises moved slightly higher into the year end as CPI recorded an annual increase of 2.5% in December, which followed an increase of 2.6% in November – ahead of the Bank of England’s 2% target but still consistent of a wider trend of easing inflationary pressure.
Encouragingly, core inflation, which strips out volatile elements such as fuel and food, fell back to 3.2% in December from 3.5% a month earlier. Services inflation, which has been the hardest nut to crack for the BoE, dropped to 4.4% from 5.0% and will be of particular interest to policymakers in Threadneedle Street as they eye further possible rate cuts. Services inflation driven by wage rises has been one of the main barriers to easing monetary policy further.
When will interest rates be cut further?
Fiscal policies unveiled in the Budget, notably the increase to employer national insurance, stand to add to upward pressure on prices and mean services inflation may be hard to flush out of the system owing to its typically higher labour intensity.
Other factors could also conspire against there being more than a couple of interest rate cuts this year. Major retailers have warned that food prices may resume an upward trajectory, and a recent increase in the previously subdued oil price could herald a further inflationary pulse on top of the expected impact of Donald Trump’s reprise as US President. There are concerns that should Trump look to implement his tariff-led approach there could be a significant impact on the costs of global trade.
However, with just two cuts last year and economic pressures mounting, we believe a balance of policymakers will decide it is appropriate to take a further 0.25% slice off interest rates from 4.75% to 4.5% at the next meeting in February. If anything, the recent tightening in financial conditions, which pose clear downside risks to the UK economic outlook, reinforce the case for BoE easing in the spring too. Further reassuring inflation numbers would also serve to point the committee in that direction.
What does it mean for borrowers and savers?
Many households and businesses will be hoping for significantly lower interest rates to reduce borrowing costs. Owing to the uncertain trajectory of inflation the best they can hope for is a slow and steady downward trend, but there is a good chance market expectations will shift to more than a couple of cuts for 2025 which could provide a bit of relief in coming months.
Meanwhile, the interest rate picture remains positive for savers with the best easy access rates still north of 4.5%. However, this inflation-beating rate of return is likely to narrow over time as the base rate moves lower. It may therefore be a good time to consider a fixed rate if you are happy to lock your money away because inflation and interest rate expectations may now fall back a little. A rate of around 4.5% is currently achievable for a one-year fixed term.
