Global markets are on edge as leaders prepare for this weekend’s critical trade summit in Geneva, following a landmark agreement between the US and UK that has already sparked a surge in investor optimism.
If negotiators make headway toward broader international trade cooperation, analysts believe equity markets may be set for a significant rally.
“This could prove to be a defining moment for global markets,” said Nigel Green, CEO of international financial advisory firm deVere Group.
“We’ve seen how bilateral deals can move markets, and now the world’s major economies have a window to build on that momentum. Geneva could trigger a global reset in trade—and a fresh surge in stocks.”
The Geneva meetings bring together top-level delegates from the G20, WTO, and finance ministries with a mission: rebuild a foundation for trade that reflects current realities and removes costly, outdated frictions.
Expectations are rising that concrete steps may be taken to reduce tariff barriers, simplify customs procedures, and restart key investment dialogues—particularly between the US, EU, and China.
Investors are already positioning for a breakthrough. US and UK equities have rallied sharply on the back of last week’s deal, while global fund flows have shifted toward cyclical sectors, exporters, and emerging markets. Germany’s DAX and Japan’s Nikkei are also seeing renewed interest.
“Markets are hungry for progress—and for confidence,” says Nigel Green.
“A successful outcome in Geneva would send a clear signal that the era of fragmentation is giving way to pragmatic cooperation. That’s the kind of inflection point that fuels sustained equity growth.”
The recent US-UK pact, which eliminates tariffs on the vast majority of goods and eases restrictions on financial services, has reignited hopes that a wider re-opening of trade channels is possible. If Geneva delivers even partial alignment on digital trade, environmental standards, or supply chain resilience, the market impact could be swift and significant.
Already, optimism is showing up in forward-looking indicators. US manufacturing new orders are at a 15-month high, European business confidence has turned positive for the first time this year, and China’s April export data surprised strongly to the upside. Add to this the global shift toward lower interest rates, and the ingredients for an equity breakout are in place—pending political will.
One especially sensitive area is technology. Data governance and digital access remain sticking points between major players. But sources close to the talks suggest a framework is emerging that would give multinational firms greater clarity and flexibility—potentially unlocking major investment into AI infrastructure, fintech, and cross-border platforms.
“The stakes are high. But so is the potential upside between the world’s two largest economies,” says Nigel Green. “A genuine step forward on trade will encourage risk-taking, drive earnings upgrades, and support higher valuations across global markets.”
He concludes: “Capital is already responding. International equity funds posted their strongest weekly inflow since January, led by allocations into Asia-Pacific and Europe.
“Meanwhile, volatility metrics continue to ease, suggesting traders are bracing more for a bullish surprise than a breakdown.”
